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AMOS Workshop: Probabilistic Weather Forecasting for the Energy Industry
28/07/2021 - 29/07/2021
This workshop facilitates engagement between the weather and energy forecasting community.
About this event
Weather is having a growing impact on electricity market dynamics and the day to day operation of electricity system. Weather prediction is inherently uncertain. Considerable investment has been made in weather forecast models to account for and represent uncertainty through probabilistic forecasting. This workshop facilitates engagement between the weather and energy sectors, focussing on the theme of probabilistic forecasts.
Location: online interactive – access details to follow
- Wednesday 28th July 1400 – 1800 (AEST)
- Thursday 29th July 1000 – 1400 (AEST)
Who is this intended for:
The workshop is intended for those members of the energy industry who:
- Would like to know more about probabilistic forecasts
- Would like to know more about how to interpret skill of probabilistic forecasts; or
- Already using probabilistic forecasts and looking to refine them
Why probabilistic forecasts:
The standard weather or climate forecast today is probabilistic; meaning, along with predicting the expected weather, precise statement relating to the confidence of the forecast system are possible. Examples of standard probabilistic forecast range from short term (minutes) forecasts of solar radiation to long range (months) forecasts of temperature anomalies. Forecast developers and some users of forecast, use measures of “probabilistic forecast skill” to select amongst probabilistic forecast systems. There is rarely one unique measure of skill, knowing which measure to use is context dependent and a challenge for all forecast users. This workshop bridges the gap between forecast users and producers, specifically this workshop:
Includes discussion on conceptual frameworks used to compare probabilistic forecast to observed reality
- Case studies from short term forecasting project
- Case studies from longer range forecast
- Calibration of probabilistic forecasts
- A short virtual mixer – in virtual tea session.
- An opportunity to participate in an interactive round table
- Targeted for forecast users involved in the energy industry.
- Hans-Peter Waldl, Overspeed
- Corinna Mohrlen, WEPROG
- Miguel Ortega-Vazquez, EPRI
- John Zack, UL Renewables
- Gregor Giebel, DTU Wind Energy
- Alberto Troccoli ,WEMC/SECLI FIRM
- Peter Steinle, Bureau of Meteorology
- Debbie Hudson, Bureau of Meteorology
- Yun Li, Western Power
- Nick Engerer, CTO, Solcast
- AMOS Members $50
- Non-Members $75
- Full-time students free (must used .edu email)