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AMOS Probabilistic Weather Forecasting Workshop

July 28 - July 29

Weather is having a growing impact on electricity market dynamics and the day to day operation of electricity system. Weather prediction is inherently uncertain. Considerable investment has been made in weather forecast models to account for and represent uncertainty through ensemble forecasting. This workshop will facilitate engagement between the weather and energy sectors to identify opportunities for collaboration and coordinated research to benefit both sectors.

Location: Online (interactive)

Technical workshop on probabilistic forecasting in energy

The evolution of forecasting systems from non-probabilistic to probabilistic is a crucial development which is required to maintain a resilient power grid as the grid evolves to include new technologies.

Who is this intended for:

The AMOS workshop on measuring probabilistic forecasting is organised to address the probabilistic  aspect of power forecasting. The workshop is intended for those members of the energy industry who:

  • Would like to know more about how to interpret skill of probabilistic forecast; or
  • Already using probabilistic forecast and looking to refine them
  • Would like to know more about probabilistic forecast

Why probabilistic forecasts:

The standard weather or climate forecast today is probabilistic; meaning, along with predicting the expected weather, precise statement relating to the confidence of the forecast system are possible. Examples of standard probabilistic forecast range from short term (minutes) forecasts of solar radiation to long range (months) forecasts of temperature anomalies.

Forecast developers and some users of forecast, use measures of “probabilistic forecast skill” to select amongst probabilistic forecast systems. There is rarely one unique measure of skill, knowing which measure to use is context dependent and a challenge for all forecast users.

This workshop bridges the gap between forecast users and producers, specifically this workshop:

  • Includes discussion on conceptual frameworks used to compare probabilistic forecast to observed reality
  • Case studies from short term forecasting project
  • Case studies from longer range forecast
  • Calibration of probabilistic forecasts
  • A short virtual mixer – in virtual tea session.
  • An opportunity to participate in an interactive round table
  • Targeted for forecast users involved in the energy industry.

Registration:

AMOS Members $50.00
Non-Members $75.00

 

Details

Start:
July 28
End:
July 29
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